The sudden acceleration of a “secret” trade deal between Bangladesh and the United States, scheduled to be signed in Washington on Monday, February 9, 2026, has sent ripples through the South Asian diplomatic corridor.
This “rushed” agreement comes just 72 hours before Bangladesh’s high-stakes general elections on February 12 and a mere week after India secured its own landmark trade pact with the U.S. For the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, the deal is a desperate strategic maneuver to protect the country’s economic lifeblood—the Ready-Made Garment (RMG) sector—from being undercut by India’s new competitive edge.
The “India Factor”: A Race to 15%
The primary catalyst for this urgency is the India-U.S. trade breakthrough, which saw Washington slash tariffs on Indian goods from 50% down to 18%. This move effectively placed Indian textile and apparel exporters on a superior footing compared to their Bangladeshi counterparts, who currently face a 20% tariff (which was already lowered from a punishing 37% peak in early 2025).
Fearing a mass exodus of American orders to Indian factories, Dhaka is reportedly pushing for a reciprocal rate of 15%. This 3% “buffer” is seen as the minimum required for Bangladesh to maintain its market dominance, as garments account for nearly 90% of its exports to the American market.
Why the “Secret” Tag?
The deal has been dubbed “secret” by local media and business leaders due to a highly unusual Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA) signed between Dhaka and Washington in June 2025. This NDA has kept the draft text hidden from the public, the Parliament, and even the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA).
Critics, including the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), argue that it is unprecedented for a temporary, unelected interim administration to sign a legally binding, long-term international treaty just days before a national election, effectively “tying the hands” of the incoming government.
Reported Terms: The Geopolitical Quid Pro Quo
While the official text remains under wraps, leaks from the Ministry of Commerce suggest that the tariff reduction comes with significant American “strings” attached, aimed at decoupling Bangladesh from Chinese influence:
Agricultural Swap: A “square-meter for square-meter” logic where Bangladesh gets lower apparel tariffs in exchange for massive increases in imports of U.S. cotton, wheat, and soybeans.
Defense & Technology: Commitments to increase purchases of U.S. military equipment and a moratorium on e-commerce tariffs.
Standards & Inspections: Accepting U.S. safety and quality standards for American automobiles and machinery without additional local inspections.
Strategic Realignment: Explicit clauses requiring Bangladesh to reduce its reliance on Chinese industrial imports, a move that could complicate Dhaka’s “Look East” policy.v
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